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☆ Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever. A Haley win in the first primary race in the nation would indicate that Trump is not invincible. He did more than 5 points better than where his final Iowa poll had him. (His 28-point margin over Bradley was the same as the final poll found, as both Bradley and Gore won some undecided voters.)

Persons: Donald Trump, Ann Selzer, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, –, They’re, Haley, Chris Christie –, George W, Bush, didn’t, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Patrick Buchanan, Bob Dole, Buchanan, McCain, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart, Haley isn’t, DeSantis, Al Gore, Gore, Bill Bradley, Bradley, Trump . Gore, Dole Organizations: CNN, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Iowa GOP, Granite State, New, New Jersey Gov, University of New, Dole, Democratic, Republican, Trump . Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, University of New Hampshire, Hampshire, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina, Florida

☆ Trump Is Still Far Ahead in Iowa Poll, With Haley Matching DeSantis for 2nd
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Maggie Astor | More About Maggie Astor | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Former President Donald J. Trump still has a huge lead in Iowa, according to a poll released Monday, but Nikki Haley has surged to tie Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for a distant second place. Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former United Nations ambassador, are tied at 16 percent. That is a decline of three percentage points for Mr. DeSantis and an increase of 10 points for Ms. Haley, driven in part by increasing support for Ms. Haley among independent voters. The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Iowa’s, DeSantis, Haley, Ann Selzer Organizations: Gov, Des Moines Register, NBC, Mr, United Nations, J Locations: Iowa, Florida, South Carolina

☆ Trump edges up in Iowa even as legal challenges grow, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Former U.S. President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa, U.S. October 29, 2023. Trump is showing strength in Iowa despite considerable legal challenges. The former Republican president faces four criminal and three civil trials, some related to his attempts to overturn his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden. "He’s still the dominant player in the field, and his standing has in fact improved from August," said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll. The poll was conducted before Trump's former vice president, Mike Pence, dropped out of the race over the weekend.

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Morgan, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Biden, He’s, Ann Selzer, Haley, DeSantis, Mike Pence, Susan Heavey, James Oliphant, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, Republican, REUTERS, Rights, Former U.S, NBC, Des Moines Register, United Nations, Trump, Democrat, Republicans, Thomson Locations: Sioux City , Iowa, U.S, Former, Iowa, Florida, Midwestern

Nikki Haley is surging in support among Iowa Republicans and is now tied for second place in the battle for the GOP nomination in the Hawkeye State, according to a poll released Monday morning. Haley has the first-choice backing of 16% of Iowa Republicans – the same as Florida Gov. The poll was conducted before Trump's vice president, Mike Pence, dropped out of the race on Saturday, saying "this is not my time." Even before the realignment, Pence was struggling, having dropped from 6% support in August to 2% in the current poll. The Iowa poll reflects a new political reality for the 2024 elections, with the nominations for both major political parties appearing to be sewn up with two and a half months to go before the first nominating contest.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, –, pollster J, Ann Selzer, Haley, Iowa Republicans –, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley, Mike Pence, Pence, Joe Biden, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Dean Phillips, Phillips, James Garfield, Jan Organizations: South Carolina Gov, Iowa Republicans, GOP, Republican, Des Moines Register, NBC, Florida Gov, Suffolk University, Boston Globe, USA, New Hampshire Republican, Tech, New, New Jersey Gov, North Dakota Gov, Arkansas Gov, Pence, Trump, Democratic Locations: Hawkeye, Florida, New Hampshire, DeSantis, New, New Jersey, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota

☆ Trump has commanding lead in Iowa ahead of 2024 Republican caucus - poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom survey of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers shows Trump has the backing of 42%, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 19% and U.S. Among Trump supporters, however, 66% said their vote was set, while 34% said they could be persuaded to change their minds. The poll found 65% of likely Republican caucusgoers didn't think Trump had committed serious crimes, compared with the 26% who believed he had. The survey came ahead of Wednesday's first Republican primary debate, which Trump has said he will skip, citing his large lead in polls. A national CBS poll on Sunday showed Trump was the preferred candidate for 62% of Republican voters, with DeSantis trailing behind at 16%.

Persons: Donald Trump, Iowa Republican caucusgoers, Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Joe Biden, Ann Selzer, Iowa pollster, caucusgoers didn't, Biden, David Ljunggren, Colleen Jenkins, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Former U.S, Republican, Des Moines Register, NBC, Iowa Republican, Florida Governor, U.S, Democratic, Iowa, Trump, CBS, Sunday, DeSantis, Thomson Locations: Former, Iowa, Georgia, Wednesday's

☆ Trump holds big lead in new Iowa poll, but DeSantis and Scott see paths to victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Charlie Neibergall, Meg Kinnard | APFormer President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a major new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa released Monday. Trump garnered the support of 42% of respondents, while DeSantis came in second with 19%. In an overture to Iowa voters, Trump also asserted without evidence that he "saved" ethanol and popular entitlement programs. While Trump and DeSantis share a similar overall approval in the state — 63% for Trump and 61% for DeSantis — the Florida governor's support appears to be much shakier than the former president's.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Charlie Neibergall, Meg Kinnard, caucusgoers, DeSantis, George W, Bush, Trump, Scott, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, Haley —, J, Ann Selzer, GOP caucusgoers Organizations: Florida Gov, South, Trump, South Carolina Gov, New, New Jersey Gov, Des Moines Register, NBC, DeSantis, Iowa, GOP Locations: Florida, South Carolina, Iowa, DeSantis, New Jersey, China, U.S

☆ Iowa Republican caucus-goers love Trump more than ever, even after he attacked their governor: poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers. A new Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll found that Trump is viewed favorably by 65% of likely GOP caucus-goers and unfavorably by 33%. A whopping 81% of likely caucus-goers view her favorably, including 50% who view her very favorably. A majority (52%) of likely caucus-goers said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. The Iowa Poll was conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023 by telephone.

Persons: Donald Trump, it's, Kim Reynolds, Trump, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Ann Selzer's Selzer, Reynolds, Ron DeSantis, Sen, Tim Scott of, Trump's, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Iowans Organizations: Iowa Republicans, Trump, Service, Iowa Republican, Gov, Des Moines Register, Texas, NBC, GOP, J, Republicans, Florida Gov Locations: Iowa, Wall, Silicon, Tim Scott of South Carolina

NBC News will partner with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom for "The Iowa Poll" in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential caucuses in the state. The partners will work with Selzer & Company pollster J. Ann Selzer to develop questions. “The 2024 presidential election is well under way and it’s critical to capture the thinking of the electorate at every stage of the cycle,” NBC News’ Senior Vice President of Politics, Carrie Budoff Brown, said. “The Iowa Poll has a storied history of setting the stage for the presidential election cycle,” Carol Hunter, executive editor of the Des Moines Register, added. “We are excited to join forces with NBC News and our longtime partners Selzer & Company and Mediacom to bring Iowans and the nation impactful information about the thinking of likely participants ahead of the 2024 Iowa caucuses.”

Persons: pollster J, Ann Selzer, Carrie Budoff Brown, “, ” Carol Hunter, ” Organizations: NBC, Des Moines Register, Selzer, ’, Republican, NBC News, Company Locations: Iowa

DeSantis is scheduled to visit Iowa on Friday, his third trip to the state since declaring his presidential bid. His wife, Casey DeSantis, last week traveled to Iowa to launch a national "Mamas for DeSantis" campaign focused on parental rights, hoping to win over the swing vote of suburban Republican women. DeSantis' supporters are also emphasizing what they see as the similarities between DeSantis and Kim Reynolds, Iowa's popular Republican governor, said one person close to the campaign. "The campaign has the most sophisticated and experienced team ever in Iowa, and is poised to crush DeSantis," Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said. A dearth of reliable polling in Iowa makes it difficult to assess the real strength of both DeSantis and Trump in the state.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Trump, Chris Stirewalt, Stirewalt, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Steve Cortes, Donald Trump, They've, Ryan Frederick, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Casey DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Iowa's, Reynolds, Steven Cheung, Ann Selzer, Selzer, James Oliphant, Gram Slattery, Alexandra Ulmer, Ross Colvin, Alistair Bell Organizations: Republican, Trump, American Enterprise Institute, Arkansas, Fox Business, Republican Party, Iowa, Thomson Locations: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, U.S, Trump, Adair County

Here are five races where long-shot contenders could shock the nation on Nov. 8; we've also included how the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections and campaigns, rates the odds. Or skip that race on the ballot?”Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Democratic”North CarolinaRepublicans are favored to win North Carolina, but only slightly. Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Republican”IowaAt 89 years old, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is running for another six-year term. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Republican”WashingtonSen. Patty Murray, the third-ranked Democrat and chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, is the GOP’s white whale this cycle. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Democratic”

☆ Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Quoctrung Bui | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +18 min

But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. Just because you put the right ingredients in a bowl, doesn’t mean you’re going to end up with a cake. I think a lot of that has been swept under the rug because the move to online polling seems so inexorable. Pollsters don’t know what people are seeing, hearing and reading. I know at FiveThirtyEight you can search by A-rated or B-rated, but I don’t know how they’re coming up with these ratings.

☆ Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, who's seeking his eighth term in office, has a slim lead over Democratic challenger Mike Franken, poll says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Veteran GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley has a slim three-point lead over Democratic challenger Mike Franken. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Grassley leading Franken 46%-43% among likely voters. Grassley usually wins reelection handily, but Franken might give him his toughest race in decades. Franken, a retired United States Navy vice admiral, unsuccessfully sought the Democratic Senate nomination in 2020 but was defeated by businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. This year, Franken won the Democratic nomination over former Rep. Abby Finkenauer in a party primary.

A total of 42% of Republicans in the U.S. identify as “MAGA” Republicans, while 58% disavow the term, according to a new national poll by J. Ann Selzer and Grinnell College. Overall, 17% of respondents said they identify as MAGA Republican when told the phrase and asked if it describes them, the poll found. The survey offered a deep dive into the demographics of the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who embrace the “MAGA” label. They are disproportionately male (59%), 55 and older (55%), white (77%), lacking a college degree (76%), and make more than $50,000 a year (60%). Substantial majorities identify as conservative (81%), strong Republicans (65%) and Protestant (61%).

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